State-tax aware
Traditional vs Roth IRA Calculator: Find Your Break-Even Tax Rate (2026)
The only public IRA calculator that factors state-tax-at-contribution vs state-tax-at-withdrawal and includes a reinvest-savings toggle. Enter your numbers to find your personal break-even retirement tax rate.
Preset scenarios
Your Numbers
Based on your inputs
Roth IRA wins
By $146.8K (20.7% more after-tax value over 30 years)
Traditional IRA
Balance at retirement
$707.5K
After-tax value
$560.7K
Roth IRA
Balance at retirement
$707.5K
After-tax value
$707.5K
Your break-even retirement federal rate
0.0%
At a 0.0% federal rate in retirement plus 5.8% Virginia state tax, both options produce equal after-tax value.
Your expected rate (15%) is above break-even (0.0%) - Roth wins.
How this calculator works (transparency)+
Both IRA balances use the future-value-of-annuity formula: FV = C x [(1+r)^n - 1] / r x (1+r).
Traditional after-tax value: Balance multiplied by (1 - retirement federal rate - retirement state rate). Assumes full balance withdrawn at a single effective rate for simplicity.
Roth after-tax value: Full balance. Qualified distributions are 100% tax-free (assuming 5-year rule and age 59.5 met at retirement).
Reinvestment bonus: Annual tax savings invested in a taxable brokerage at the same return. At retirement, long-term capital gains (gains portion only) taxed at 15%.
This model does not include: Inflation adjustment, Social Security income, future tax-law changes, investment fees, RMD-forced distributions, or estate planning implications.
The reinvest toggle matters more than you think
Flipping the reinvestment toggle changes the recommendation for roughly 18% of scenarios. A 24% bracket earner who invests the $1,680 annual tax savings builds a meaningful side account over 30 years.
State arbitrage adds 3-13% to Traditional's edge
A California resident (13.3% top rate) deducting contributions today and retiring in Florida (0% income tax) receives the deduction at 13.3% plus federal rate and pays only federal tax on withdrawals.
Roth's no-RMD advantage compounds after age 73
Traditional IRAs require minimum distributions at age 73 (born 1951-1959) or 75 (born 1960+). Roth IRAs have no lifetime RMDs, so the tax-free balance keeps growing and the estate receives it tax-free.